73 Percent of Americans are Intrigued by Their Family Roots

MyFamily.com commissioned a new study by Market Strategies, Inc. (MSI). The results have been released, and they state (in part):

73 percent of Americans are interested in discovering their family history. This figure represents a 13 percent increase over a similar Maritz Poll that was conducted in 2000, in which 60 percent of Americans said they were interested in discovering their family history.

You can read the full press release from MyFamily.com and Market Strategies, Inc. at http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050609/lath018.html?.v=14

Comments

[Mike Curtis]

Stories like this bother me. While I am familiar with Market Strategies and feel that it is a high quality research company, this PR release raises far more questions than it answers.

For example, the number of Americans who show an interest in their family history may be higher than in 2000, and it may not be. It's very likely an apples to oranges comparison because there are so many mitigating factors - the form of the question in the two studies, how the sample was drawn, the population from which the sample was drawn, the mode of data collection in each study (Internet vs. Internet, or Internet vs. phone), and "house effects" - the nuances of how one company (Maritz Research) executes their research versus another company (Market Strategies). ALL of these things can have a major impact on the results, real changes in family history interest notwithstanding. Because the PR release doesn't provide us with any of this detail, it becomes impossible to accurately assess the meaning of the results. Both Maritz and Market Strategies are good companies, but that doesn't make the 13 percentage point difference in the two results "real."

The other problem I have is implied rather than explicitly stated. The implication is that interest in family history is on the rise; that is, trending upward. As anyone who has muddled through a basic statistics course can tell you, trends cannot be determined with fewer than three datapoints. For example, what if American introspection following September 11th caused interest in family history to skyrocket. Maybe (assuming the above measures are even valid) interest in family history peaked at 85% in October of 2001, then has continuously dropped since then. We can't know that because we have only two measures in time. It looks like the results are getting better, when in fact they are getting worse. (This is a HYPOTHETICAL example!)

I guess my problem with all of this is the way survey results and statistics are thrown around as though they are all equally meaningful and valid. I have three suggestions for future research:

1) Have the same company conduct the exact same research in the exact same way (sampling frame, questionnaire, mode of data collection, etc.) at multiple points in time. This will provide a much better measure for determining any change in family history interest over time.

2) Investigate the very real possibility that family historians on the Internet are quite different in numerous ways than those who don't use the Internet at all. If you aren't going to do that, don't make claims about "73% of Americans" when what you really mean is "73% of Americans who were available to participate in our Internet survey." You can't just weight Internet data to match census profiles and say that the results are representative of U.S. households.

3) Provide a clear measure of what level the interest in family history is. Are most of the people who are interested avid genealogists? Are they name collectors? Are they people who once asked their mother who their great grandparents were? The level of interest says a lot about who these people are, and the potential for the hobby or profession of genealogy to truly grow.

Just my two cents worth.

[Michael Hangis]

My personal interest in family history started with a family tree project at my son's school. That would be three to four years ago. I have used the internet, met with older relatives, researched in city hall, mass archives, etc. Most relatives seem somewhat interested but for the most part are not. I found at least three or four that are very interested. I have also found friends who are interested in their own family tree. For software I mainly use family tree but I have Legacy also. I have made a family tree with some lines going back as far as the 1700's. I can at least trace all lines 5 generation. But have had diffculty collecting pictures of older relatives. Although, I have not lost interest. I do not seem to pursue it much anymore. One thing that has soured me a little is all these subscription prices to geneolgy sites. The one that I like most is my subscription to the Godfrey library. So take this reply as a single sampling of someone who has an interest in family history. Which I happen to believe a lot of people are interested in. But most do not pursue said interest. The validity of said survey is questionable but I think the interest in family history is valid. Whether there is a true passion for it is why you do not see people more involved in it.